Jacqueline R. Tanhara
WITH early climate models indicating an 80 percent probability of El Niño conditions returning in the 2026/27 agricultural season, Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development has issued an urgent call for a coordinated shift from reactive disaster management to proactive, system-wide resilience building, warning that the country cannot afford to be caught unprepared a second time.
The call came on Monday at a high-level Agriculture Development Working Group Meeting at the ministry’s offices in Harare where government officials, development partners, and representatives from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), IFAD and other agencies gathered to align investments and finalise a joint preparedness plan ahead of the looming threat.
Permanent Secretary Professor Dr. Obert Jiri, who chaired the meeting, delivered a confident and evidence-driven opening, drawing on decades of historical climate data to make a compelling case for urgent, coordinated action.
“The question is not if another shock will come, but how prepared we are,” Prof Jiri said. “Our response must shift from reactive emergency management to proactive, systemic resilience-building.”
Cost of unpreparedness
The data presented at the meeting made the stakes clear. El Niño events cost Zimbabwe an average of USD325 million in maize production — losses that early action can significantly reduce. The 2023/24 season, one of the most severe in a century, saw maize losses of around USD 607 million and the death of over 44,000 cattle — figures that have since sharpened the government’s resolve to act earlier and smarter.
On water security, the data is equally instructive. Lake Kariba dropped to just 0.8 percent of usable storage in December 2022, and the ministry’s analysis shows a strong link between El Niño intensity and borehole failure — with over 12,000 drying up in 2015/16 and 6,000 in 2023/24. These lessons are now directly informing the government’s investment in groundwater monitoring and solar-powered water infrastructure, with the goal of keeping 2.6 million previously water-insecure Zimbabweans reliably supplied.
“This is not a future scenario; it is a recurring crisis,” Prof Jiri said. “The frequency of El Nińo events is increasing, they now occur every three to four years, compared to every five to seven years in the 1980s.”
He noted that February 2024 recorded the lowest rainfall in over 100 years, underscoring that climate variability in the region was not merely cyclical but trending towards greater severity.
Early warning as a strategic imperative
At the heart of Tuesday’s discussions was the concept of Early Warning, Early Action (EWEA), a framework that seeks to transform climate forecasts and real-time data into timely, pre-emptive interventions that protect farmers, food systems, and livelihoods before a drought takes hold.
Prof Jiri outlined a concrete early action agenda for the 2026/27 season, calling on all partners to jointly finalise and co-finance a unified preparedness and mitigation plan. Key priorities included strengthening localised agro-weather forecasting, establishing real-time pest and disease reporting systems, and building up the Enhanced Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) to a pre-positioned stockpile of 450,000 metric tonnes ahead of the expected onset of dry conditions from April 2027.
“We already know what to do, when to act, and how to execute,” Prof Jiri said. “Drawing on your expertise, we know how many people will be affected. Together, we can map where they will be affected, and together we can plan how early and how effectively we can respond, even as the shock is approaching.”
The ministry also announced the establishment of an AI-powered groundwater monitoring unit, which will track aquifer levels in real time to inform early interventions before borehole failure becomes widespread. Investments in solar-powered boreholes for Village Business Units (VBUs) were identified as an immediate priority.
From response to resilience: the Pfumvudza evidence
A key pillar of the government’s early action strategy is the accelerated roll-out of the Pfumvudza/Intwasa conservation agriculture model, a precision farming approach that has demonstrated significant drought-buffering capacity among smallholder farmers.
Prof Jiri pointed to the 2023/24 season as proof that preparedness makes a measurable difference. Despite the severity of the El Nińo event, Zimbabwe achieved a record wheat harvest of 562,091 metric tonnes, a direct result of a deliberate and well-resourced food security strategy that was activated well before the crisis peaked.
“History shows that El Nińo need not become a catastrophe,” he said. “The 1991/92 drought was a national emergency. The 2023/24 drought, while severe, saw us cope better due to preparedness. The difference between a national catastrophe and a manageable crisis is preparedness, which is precisely why we are here today.”
The meeting was told that full adoption of the Pfumvudza/Intwasa model remained a top priority for the 2026/27 season, with development partner support sought to accelerate its reach to the most climate-vulnerable districts.
WFP and FAO pledge support through building blocks framework
Development partners at the meeting reaffirmed their commitment to Zimbabwe’s resilience agenda.
Speaking on behalf of WFP, representatives outlined a new Building Blocks Programme anchored in the agency’s Country Strategic Plan for 2027 to 2031 and structured around three pillars: emergency preparedness, strengthening food systems, and services on demand.
“The whole essence is how we create synergies and how we work together to attain our shared objectives,” Billy Mwinga, WFP representative told delegates. “We are taking a much more holistic approach to resilience. Previously, we implemented discrete projects. Going forward, we want to focus on sustainability, impact, and scale.”
WFP’s programme will support Zimbabwe’s transition from rain-dependent farming to irrigated, climate-smart food production through investments in large water reservoirs, solar-powered irrigation, and green-energy transitions for smallholder farmers. The agency also committed to strengthening anticipatory action mechanisms that allow resources to be pre-positioned and early interventions triggered automatically when climate thresholds are crossed.
FAO echoed the collaborative spirit, announcing that the country is currently formulating its next Country Programme, a process it says will be directly shaped by the priorities articulated by the ministry and its development partners.
“We stand ready to work alongside the ministry and our partners to achieve results,” said Dr. Patrice Talla, FAO Sub-regional Coordinator. “The Country Programme Framework is not a document for FAO alone. It is a joint document formulated by FAO, the government, and our partners to define key intervention priorities, to guide not only our work, but other partners operating in the country.”
FAO called for more structured coordination, proposing a high-level review forum to be held frequently to track implementation of jointly agreed priorities. The agency also committed to providing technical expertise in agriculture, food systems, and policy support, and pledged to leverage partnerships with IFAD and bilateral donors to unlock financing at scale.
Village business units: the anchor of rural resilience
A centrepiece of the ministry’s rural adaptation strategy is the Village Business Unit model — integrated community hubs that combine a one-hectare drip-irrigated plot, two fishponds, and a water trough to diversify food and income sources at the household level.
Prof Jiri called on development partners to support the full VBU value chain, from inputs and training through to aggregation, value addition, and market linkage, noting that while production within VBUs had become robust, market connections remained the weakest link.
“If 1,000 VBUs are each producing 1,000 cabbages, they all need a market, in this country and beyond,” he said. “We must follow through the entire value chain to capture the benefits at every stage.”
The Ministry also highlighted the Water Drought Mitigation Centre, an expanded VBU model piloted during the 2023/24 El Niño drought to cater for livestock-keeping communities. The model provides feed, fodder, and water for livestock alongside food security interventions, and was deployed across 635 critical wards identified as high-risk during the last drought season.
Aligned with nds2 and a usd 15.8 billion agriculture vision
The meeting was framed within Zimbabwe’s broader economic transformation agenda. The government is implementing the Agriculture Food Systems and Rural Transformation Strategy 2 (AFSRTS 2: 2026–2030) under the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS2), targeting a USD 15.8 billion agricultural industry by 2030, up from USD 10.3 billion achieved by 2025.
Tanhara is a communications and advocacy official at the Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development.