Acting Eskom CEO doesn’t ‘lose sleep’ over a blackout – but worries about Stage 8

Eskom acting CEO Calib Cassim said that he does not “lose sleep” over the possibility of a blackout.

Cassim was speaking on a panel at the Enlit Africa 2023 conference, which kicked off at the Cape Town International Convention Centre on Tuesday. He was accompanied by Eskom’s general manager for transmission, Segomoco Scheppers.

Cassim addressed concerns about the possibility of a blackout, as the country has been experiencing Stage 6 load shedding more frequently than in prior years.

“One of the biggest questions asked by various stakeholders is, ‘is the country going to experience a blackout?’ I have all the confidence in the staff of the System Operator. We will never get there,” he said.

Cassim said that the System Operator team – whose work is to ensure the grid is stable – have the competence for the task, making decisions “by the second”. He added that there are several control checks in place before the country reaches a blackout.

Scheppers explained that load shedding is a “controlled” reduction of demand. “I think ‘control’ is the operative word … we are unhappy to be there, but we know we are in control of the situation.” A blackout arises when we have effectively “lost control”, he said.

Often blackouts occur because of unexpected events that aren’t related to generation supply but rather extreme weather or climatic factors, like snow or a tornado.

Moving from Stage 6 to Stage 8 load shedding is not a signal that there is an impending blackout, Scheppers stressed.

He gave the assurance that there are protection devices that kick in when needed to stabilise or restore balance to the system.

There are also black-start “facilities” in place that will apply in the extreme case of a blackout. “Should it [a blackout] happen, we need to know what to do. If we are there, we have a duty to recover the system.”

The black start is a test that involves shutting down a power station, restarting it, and then connecting it to the grid again. Essentially it is for Eskom to check if it can reboot the system after a blackout.

One of these tests was done recently and was successful, said Scheppers. He said these tests are done as a matter of course and not because the country is experiencing higher stages of load shedding.

Eskom has measures in place for load shedding up to Stage 8. However, the National Rationalisation Specifications association is developing protocols for higher stages of load shedding. Eskom is also providing input in this process.

“From our perspective, it is a good thing to have in place. We hope not to need it. But should we need it, it is important that it be there,” Scheppers said of the protocols. Having these in place will help society cope better with the disruptions, he added.

Winter plan

Commenting on the winter outlook, Cassim said that a “successful winter” for the power utility would be to keep the peak periods at Stage 6 or lower and during off-peak periods at Stage 4.

“We had three units at the Kusile power station of 2 000MW, which are no longer available during this winter. We also have both units of Koeberg of 900MW that are not available. We are starting on the back foot of -3 000MW,” Cassim said.

He added that it would be a “tough winter”.

Cassim said that the unavailability factor of electricity averages 16 000MW to 19 000MW. He said that reducing the unavailability factor is key to improving Eskom’s winter outlook and load shedding plans.

Eskom’s recovery plan predicts some relief going forward, with Kusile’s units amounting to 2 000MW returning in December.

With regard to improving the performance of existing coal-fired stations, in the next two years, Eskom plans to recover 6 000MW across its fleet, Cassim said.

Cassim added that there is some positivity ahead, especially when considering the generation capacity that will be added from Independent Power Producers (IPPs), upcoming Bid Windows and the Energy Action Plan.

Key to unlocking this generation capacity is bolstering the transmission grid.

“In the short term, [electricity] generation is key, but for the security of [electricity] supply in the long-term is all about the transmission grid, in terms of unlocking that and how to manage that grid with stability as more and more renewables come online in the future,” he said.