September 16, 2024
Expect extreme heat, risk of floods this summer as El Niño hits SA, says weather service
South Africans can expect a hotter summer than usual, with the South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasting “above-normal” minimum and maximum temperatures in the months ahead.
This could put pressure on the country’s already strained power grid as the need for cooling increases, it warned. Other countries have already experienced this as heat waves struck the northern hemisphere this year.
The SAWS further warned farmers in key areas should take precautions such as conserving water.
The weather service issued its seasonal forecast for SA this week, for the months from September 2023 to January 2024. The El Niño weather phenomenon – associated with warmer, dry conditions in southern Africa – is expected to persist in most of the summer months.
The local forecast comes amid warnings from the World Meteorological Organization that globally, El Niño, along with climate change, would usher in new, record-breaking temperatures in the next five years (2023-2027).
El Niño also generally increases global temperatures in the year after it develops.
‘Great deal of uncertainty’
Despite the warning of hotter temperatures, it is still not clear what the full impact of El Niño on South Africa will be.
The weather service expects above-normal rainfall for most of the country from mid to late spring. However, it does not expect this to have a major impact on the water levels of most dams.
Water levels, in areas like the Northern and Eastern Cape, that are still experiencing long-term drought conditions, may also face water loss through evaporation linked to the above-normal temperatures, it explained.
But the above-normal rainfall will bode well for crop and livestock production in the northeastern parts of the country. –
rom the early summer period – November to January – below-normal rainfall is expected for the central region, that is, the North West, Free State, Eastern Cape, and Northern Cape.
Below-normal rainfall is expected over the central parts of the country from November to January.
Supplied South African Weather Service
“…The relevant decision-makers are encouraged to advise farmers in these regions to practise soil and water conservation, proper water harvesting and storage, establishing good drainage systems, and other appropriate farming practices,” the weather service said.
Risks at home and abroad
Notably, the weather service warns of warmer temperatures – which will increase demand for cooling and, by extension, energy.
Similar trends in the northern hemisphere’s summer saw a spike in demand for air conditioning in response to heat waves. This burdened the grid in countries like China.
There have also been raging wildfires that swept across Europe and Canada is said to be experiecing its worst fire season in history.
Warmer conditions also mean higher ultraviolet radiation and heat exposure against which the public need to protect themselves.
On the flipside, above-normal rainfall in spring also heightens the risk of flash floods, especially in regions prone to flooding and that lack proper drainage systems, the weather service said.
“These wet conditions also have the potential to give rise to waterborne infections and water-related accidents and injuries,” the weather service said.
The weather service has also noted that the probability of hot extremes have steadily increased and will continue in future.
The forecasts are updated monthly, which means they could change.
