Harris team sees expanded electoral map in race against Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris is kicking off a push to compete against Republican Donald Trump in a wider swath of battleground states with a Tuesday rally in Atlanta.

Harris inherited a bleak electoral map from President Joe Biden. Before withdrawing from the race, polls showed the president trailing in nearly every swing state and his unpopularity largely confined him to a narrow path to victory dependent on holding a trio of key Great Lakes states.

The dynamic has shifted with Harris atop the ticket. Enjoying a burst of voter enthusiasm and campaign cash, the vice president is vying for Sun Belt states that Democrats had all but written off — Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — as well as the Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Kamala Harris

Harris’ event in Georgia’s largest city is her first major effort to put a larger group of states back in play since launching her campaign on July 21. Rapper Megan Thee Stallion plans to make an appearance at the rally, she announced Monday on her Instagram account.

Harris’ campaign is confident that her relative popularity among key voting groups — including women, younger voters and people of color — has helped expand the electoral map, according to people familiar with their thinking. Those groups had drifted from Biden but have gravitated to the new presumptive Democratic nominee, who would become the first Black woman and Asian American president if she wins in November.

“The data is clear: We have multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes,” Dan Kanninen, battleground director for the Harris campaign, told reporters on Monday. “The vice president is strong in both the Blue Wall and in the Sun Belt, and we are running hard in both.”

Georgia battleground

Even before Biden’s dramatic exit from the race, Harris had spent more time campaigning in the South and West than the president. Georgia is a state where the campaign sees that investment poised to pay off.

The vice president’s visit to Georgia on Tuesday is her 15th since taking office and her campaign has bragged about its presence there, which includes 24 offices.

A spending spree by Trump and his supporters indicates they, too, see Georgia as competitive. Trump and his allied super political action committee have booked $14.7 million in advertising there through the end of August, according to AdImpact, almost triple the $4.9 million that Future Forward PAC, which backs Harris, is set to spend. The vice president’s campaign has not reserved any advertising time in the state.

The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump won Georgia by over 5 percentage points in 2016 but lost it to Biden four years later by less than a quarter of a point, the first time a Democratic nominee carried the Peach State in nearly three decades. The 2020 election left an indelible mark: Trump was indicted last year on state charges he sought to overturn his loss.

Turning out Black voters in Atlanta will be crucial to Harris’ chances.

The city has long been considered a Black Mecca, a magnet for people of color with a cluster of historically Black colleges and universities that have been a pipeline for young professionals and a source of political activism.

It is a popular landing spot for members of the Divine Nine — the most prominent Black fraternities and sororities — whose network Harris has tapped as a member of Alpha Kappa Alpha. They offer her campaign an organic ground game in the state.

Representative Nikema Williams, who also chairs the Georgia Democratic Party and will attend Harris’ event, said her home state remains a “true battleground.”

“We’re seeing the excitement on the ground, we’re seeing people sign up to volunteer who haven’t volunteered before,” Williams said in an interview.

An Emerson College poll earlier in July when Biden was still in the race showed him trailing Trump in Georgia 47% to 41%. A poll taken after Harris’ entry showed her narrowing the gap to 48% to 46%.

Blue Wall

Biden ended his bid after pressure from fellow Democrats alarmed by his calamitous debate against Trump. Polls showed the race moving in Trump’s direction. The Republican gained an edge in many swing states and put places Biden carried easily in 2020, such as Minnesota and Virginia, into play.

“He was expanding the map into states that Democrats really had no business losing in,” said Amy Walter, publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Harris “took what was a rapidly expanding map, which was benefiting Trump, and has narrowed it back to the battleground states.”

With Biden atop the ticket, Democrats viewed the Blue Wall states as his best path to reelection. The president often touted his pro-union stance in an effort to win over White, working-class voters.

High inflation, however, has overshadowed Biden’s investments in domestic manufacturing and infrastructure. Broad voter skepticism over the administration’s handling of the economy also threatens to undercut Harris’ campaign.

Kanninen, the battleground director, said in an interview there is no indication Harris is performing worse across the Blue Wall.

“We’ve seen no data to suggest a backslide whatsoever,” he said. “The theory of the case has been win close races across several geographies and have the resources to do it.”

Democratic surge

Harris’ campaign has enrolled at least 170,000 new volunteers since Biden endorsed her, including over 50,000 in the battleground states, Kanninen said.

Democrats also have renewed hopes of competing in Nevada, a state with a relatively young electorate with large Black, Latino and Asian and Pacific Islander populations.

“When it comes to turning out must-win constituencies, energizing young voters and connecting with Nevada families on the issues that matter to them, Vice President Harris has already begun working to win and earn and their vote,” said Molly Forgey, a Democratic campaign operative in the state.

The party saw a surge of interest there when Biden endorsed Harris, a Democratic campaign official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. About 600 new volunteers signed up that day. Harris also has cultivated ties with Nevada labor groups, including the powerful Culinary Workers Union most recently during a visit to Las Vegas in January.

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