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Home Sport World Cup 2018: England ‘have 4% chance of winning in Russia’
Sport
June 7, 2018

World Cup 2018: England ‘have 4% chance of winning in Russia’

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England manager, Gareth Southgate

England have less chance of winning the Fifa World Cup than Peru, according to sports data company Gracenote.

The Peruvians who are ranked 11th in the world – two places ahead of England – have been given a 5% chance of lifting the trophy in Moscow on 15 July, while Gareth Southgate’s side have a 4% chance, the same as Belgium and Portugal.

Five-time champions Brazil are favourites with a 21% chance of winning the tournament, ahead of Spain, Germany and Argentina.

So how far will England get?

England face Tunisia, Panama and Belgium in Group G and they have a 71% chance of reaching the knock-out rounds.

That calculation is based on one million simulations of the World Cup run by Gracenote, with points awarded for each match based on the probability of a win/draw/defeat based on the ranking of each side.

If they qualify from Group G, England will face either Poland, Senegal, Colombia or Japan from Group H in the last 16 and are predicted to have a 41% chance of progressing.

But their odds tumble in the quarter-finals – where they could face the likes of Germany or Brazil – with an 18% chance of reaching the semis and 9% chance of making the final.

England's chances of reaching the knockout stage
England’s chances of reaching the knockout stage

What about the rest?

  • There is a 47% chance of a first-time winner, so someone other than Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, England or Uruguay
  • Latin American and European teams will dominate, with 10 of the last 16 being from Europe, five from South America and one from Central America
  • African side Senegal, in Group H, have a 45% chance of breaking the mould and qualifying for the last 16
  • Peru, who are playing at the World Cup for the first time since 1982, are tipped to be this tournament’s surprise packages with a 22% chance to be in the final four
  • Colombia have a 21% chance of reaching the semis  –bbc.com
Chances of reaching the knockout stages
Group A: Uruguay 77%, Russia 60%, Egypt 36%, Saudi Arabia 27%
Group B: Spain 76%, Portugal 58%, Iran 35%, Morocco 30%
Group C: France 69%, Peru 68%, Denmark 35%, Australia 27%
Group D: Argentina 82%, Croatia 57%, Iceland 35%, Nigeria 27%
Group E: Brazil 90%, Switzerland 51%, Serbia 31%, Costa Rica 28%
Group F: Germany 79%, Mexico 60%, Sweden 34%, South Korea 27%
Group G: England 71%, Belgium 71%, Tunisia 32%, Panama 26%
Group H: Colombia 77%, Poland 50%, Senegal 45%, Japan 29%