ZIMBABWE needs at least two more years of sustained growth to secure three months of import cover required to back the ZiG, experts say.
The country’s foreign currency reserves backing the ZiG increased to US$1,5 billion as of May 2026, providing the country with approximately 1,5 months of import cover.
The current reserve cushion marks a significant increase from the US$276 million held at the time the ZiG was introduced in April 2024.
However, it still falls short of the three-to-six-month threshold traditionally recommended by international financial institutions to absorb major economic shocks.
Africa Economic Development Strategies executive director Gift Mugano said the central bank’s reserves accumulation strategy has been anchored by high global commodity prices, particularly gold and key transition minerals like lithium.
“Realistically, practically, mathematically, we need another two years to hit at least three months’ import cover,” he said.
“In the next two years, we could actually hit another US$2 billion or so (in reserves) … Gold prices will remain higher because of geopolitical risks, and we are now exporting processed lithium. These measures are going to add value to our exports and give Zimbabwe the opportunity to retain more reserves.”
Weighing in, investment analyst Tarisai Makuni also said that it will take nearly two years of sustained growth to reach the minimum three-month mark, but notes that this timeline assumes the import bill stays flat.
“Our reserves grew from US$276 million in April 2024 to US$1,5 billion as of May 2026. It might take roughly two years of sustained growth to hit three months of import cover,” she said.
“This timeline assumes our import bill stays flat every month. If the economy expands rapidly or energy prices spike, our monthly import costs will rise, meaning the goalposts move higher and it will take longer to achieve those coverage ratios.”
On his part, investment analyst Enock Rukarwa emphasised that building adequate reserves remains a highly delicate task for the economy, primarily because a secure cushion requires the central bank to cover multi-month import bills.
With Zimbabwe currently importing between US$800 million and US$1 billion monthly, Rukarwa noted that a safe position would require reserves to triple.
He suggested that a policy shift may be necessary as the country approaches 2030.
“Probably what we may see as we approach around 2030 is a situation whereby that condition will be relaxed a bit so that we target something that is within our confines of manageability, in terms of what is achievable and what the economy can stomach within the confines of the obtaining circumstances,” he said.
CEO Africa Roundtable chief executive Kipson Gundani said the increase in the reserves is commendable adding that “it’s something that needs to be kept on the ride to effectively defend our currency in the event of shocks”.
Economist Tapiwa Mashakada said that by the end of 2027, it should be possible for Zimbabwe to hit a four-month import cover.
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) said the reserve position has been bolstered by a sustained increase in foreign currency inflows into the country.
“The accumulation of foreign currency reserves enabled the Reserve Bank’s strategic intervention in the foreign exchange market to ensure that all bona fide foreign payment requirements are fully met and concomitantly reinforce exchange rate stability,” the RBZ governor John Mushayavanhu said in a statement.
Zimbabwe’s plans to fully transition to a mono-currency system anchored by the ZiG are predicated on achieving a reserve cover of three to six months of imports.
The ZiG is backed by gold and other precious minerals.
newsdesk@fingaz.co.zw