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How far will you travel just to avoid turning around?

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Blessing Nyahuma

YEARS ago, in Professor Gunda’s house, I learnt one of the most important lessons of my scholarly life.

Professor Gunda and Professor Kügler were discussing with me the question of violence in apocalyptic literature. I had read widely, devel­oped my argument carefully and was convinced, beyond reasonable doubt, that I was right.

Then the discussion began.

What struck me was not simply how knowl­edgeable these two senior scholars were. What stayed with me was how unthreatened they seemed by the possibility of being wrong.

An argument could be challenged without be­coming a personal attack. Evidence could force reconsideration without humiliation. An idea could be refined, reconstructed or abandoned without anyone behaving as though his dignity had been diminished.

There was an absence of ego before the evi­dence.

That day I learnt one of the first serious les­sons of scholarship: you must become comfort­able with being wrong.

Ideas are not sacred possessions. They are claims submitted to scrutiny, strengthened by crit­icism or abandoned when evidence exposes their weakness.

If you do not want to be wrong, you do not really want to be a scholar.

Unfortunately, what I knew in scholarship did not always follow me home.

My wife and I would sometimes be driving somewhere unfamiliar. I would be behind the wheel. She would suggest that I had taken the wrong road.

“No, this is the road.”

A few kilometres lat­er, the evidence would begin accumulating against me. The GPS sys­tem kept demanding a U-turn. Somewhere in­side me, I knew she was right. You would think scholarship would take over. Examine the evi­dence. Revise the hy­pothesis. Turn around.

Not necessarily.

Suddenly I could pro­duce theories. Perhaps the Software of the navi­gation system was out­dated. Perhaps there was another entrance. Perhaps this road would eventually recon­nect with the correct one.

Apparently, the man who could reconsider violence in apocalyptic literature could not reconsider a motorway exit.

So we drove several unnecessary kilometres.

It became for me a metaphor for something much larger.

We sometimes prefer to travel further in the wrong direc­tion than endure the humiliation of turning around.

Some of the greatest damage in families, organisations and societies occurs not because people cannot see that they are wrong, but because admitting they are wrong has be­come psychologically more expensive than continuing the mistake.

The corporate world pays heavily for this. A chief exec­utive champions a strategy. Millions are invested. Staff are reorganised. Consultants are hired. The board approves it. Then the evidence changes.

Customers are not responding. Costs are rising. Compet­itors have adapted. Employees closest to the market can see that the strategy is failing.

But reversing course now carries another cost. Someone must admit that the original judgement was wrong.

Suddenly the organisation is no longer protecting a strat­egy. It is protecting an ego.

Projects survive because powerful people sponsored them. Executives reinterpret disappointing numbers because abandoning the plan feels like confessing incompetence.

Behavioural economists call part of this the sunk-cost effect. We continue investing because of what we have al­ready invested, even when the future no longer justifies it.

But money already lost cannot be recovered by losing more money.The wrong road does not become right because you have travelled fifty kilometres on it.

Great organisations therefore need leaders capable not merely of making decisions, but of correcting them.

I have a love-hate relationship with Leon Festinger’s the­ory of cognitive dissonance. It explains something unset­tling about us: when our beliefs, decisions and emerging evidence no longer sit comfortably together, we experience psychological tension and instinctively look for ways to re­solve it. Sometimes we change our minds. More often than we would like to admit, we change the explanation.

Sometimes we change our minds.

Sometimes we change the explanation.

Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson explore this through self-justification: our remarkable skill at constructing rea­sons that protect decisions already made.

Intelligence does not always protect us from self-decep­tion. Sometimes it simply gives self-deception a better vo­cabulary.This is especially dangerous in business because seniority can turn a private error into an institutional one. When nobody can challenge the chief executive, an ego can acquire a budget, a strategy department and several hundred employees.

The strongest leader, therefore, is not the person who never changes direction. It is the person capable of saying, “Given what we knew then, I supported this strategy. Given what we know now, we must change it.”

That is not weakness. It is disciplined leadership.

There is a crucial difference between conviction and stubbornness.

l Nyahuma is a Germany-based Zimbabwean public in­tellectual. His writing explores Human Development, the Psychology of Leadership, Family Life and the For­mation of Character, examining the deeper human ques­tions behind society’s greatest challenges

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