Collapse of GNU: Bitter pill to swallow
Some of the words that could be used to describe the consequences of such a move, which could be too ghastly to contemplate, are anything closer or more frightful as any Stephen King story.
Some have described it as a relapse into the pre-Global Political Agreement (GPA) era — “untold suffering and anguish” for the generality of the populace.
All hell will break loose so to speak.
Hope and business confidence that had started building up following the consummation of the unity government will immediately vanish, and with it, food, fuel and foreign currency.
Unemployment, which is said to be hovering over 90 percent, will increase to unimaginable levels.
Schools and hospitals will shut down. Millions will flee to neighbouring countries in search of better standards of living.
Those lucky enough to survive the dreaded chop in industry and commerce will skip meals all over again, while hordes of people will probably start walking or cycling to work to stretch their meagre incomes to the next pay day.
The much-talked about reforms will fall away while the dream for a new constitution will remain just that, a dream.
Sanctions, blamed for the collapse of the country’s once robust economy and the suffering of the generality of Zimbabweans, will probably be widened, and the country will completely be ostracised from the international community.
Politically-motivated violence will take centre stage while the economy will come hurtling down again.
Queues at banks and for basic necessities will likely re-emerge and so will the money changers at Roadport in Harare and “the World Bank” in Bulawayo.
Inflation will once again rear its ugly head. Subsistence farmers in the rural areas will resort to battering their livestock for maize.
Put blatantly, there will be a humanitarian catastrophe. Is this what Zimbabweans want and do they deserve to suffer the consequences of individuals pursuing selfish political goals?
Under the GPA, if one of the political parties pulls out of the marriage, the people will have to go back to the polls, albeit, using the compromise Lancaster House constitution of 1979.
Since July, the MDC-T leadership has been contemplating pulling out of the inclusive government, regarded as a marriage of convenience, citing outstanding issues plaguing the transitional arrangement.
ZANU-PF says it has met its end of the bargain and that it is now up to its partners in the government of national unity to call for the removal of sanctions as a way forward.
But the mainstream MDC, led by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, argues that it is not its responsibility to remove sanctions, but that of the imposing countries. Zimbabwe has been reeling under targeted sanctions imposed by the West and Europe for nearly a decade for alleged human rights abuses and economic mismanagement.
Upon his return from Europe and the United States in July, Prime Minister Tsvangirai plunged into the vortex of simmering frustrations within the MDC-T’s supporters and partners in the civil society over the so called outstanding issues.
The former trade unionist, who has been making the world believe that the coalition arrangement was on track, made an about-turn and said: “No one is tied up to this arrangement. There is an opportunity for divorce.”
Last week, the MDC-T took the debate of its continued participation in the coalition to its supporters at the grassroots level with a view to gauge the mood in the provinces.
It is imperative that the MDC-T leadership educates its supporters on the consequences of such radical moves to wrest power from their partners in government.
But will they pull out if the grassroots say so?
Political analyst, John Makumbe, said the MDC-T was aware that if elections were to be called, the results will be similar and there will not be a clear winner.
“They are going through the charade of consulting people yet they know that the people will say stay in there because they are not yet ready for elections,” Makumbe said.
“The consequences of pulling out, although possible, will be disastrous. We will go back 10 years and it will be difficult to recover. The MDC-T has no intention of getting out of the government of national unity. Consulting people at grassroots level is just a naughty game to agitate ZANU-PF.”
Business pundit, Nhlanhla Masuku, said it would be folly for the MDC-T to pull out of the arrangement because there is no other alternative.
“I do not see people voicing to pull out,” Masuku said.
“Things are better than they were last year. There is no other alternative to this inclusive government. For now, as business, we are concerned about the slow pace of lines of credit. We need to get production higher and pay better wages. As business, we would rather concentrate on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) money to see how it should be utilised. Anything that will destroy business is retrogressive.”
Zimbabwe recently received a US$510 million loan from the IMF in the form of Special Drawing Rights as part of the Fund’s US$250 billion scheme to assist member states deal with the global economic crisis.
Academic and political commentator, Ibbo Mandaza, said it would be foolish for the MDC-T to pull out because for them, the inclusive government is a win-win situation.
“There is a lot at stake and it would be foolish for the MDC-T to pull out now,” Mandaza said. “It’s just a matter of time before they takeover. As long as (President) Mugabe is there, the MDC will stay stronger. It was because of (President) Mugabe that the MDC was formed. It was because of (President) Mugabe that the MDC thrived and it is because of (President) Mugabe that the MDC will stay in the inclusive government.”