GNU will survive but will not work

It will survive because its major protagonists, President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai want it to. President Mugabe’s legitimacy as Zimbabwe’s President rests on the Global Political Agreement (GPA) which yielded the inclusive government. Without it he is an illegitimate leader. .
Thanks to the generosity of the MDC he was handed over the presidency over a negotiating table. President Mugabe also needs the inclusive government because it offers the only hope of securing funds from abroad. It is now up to Prime Minister Tsvangirai and Finance Minister Tendai Biti to fill the empty coffers.
This is precisely why the MDC was given all ministries related to finance, economic development and service delivery. They have to get the money and clear up the mess while President Mugabe concentrates on those matters that keep power in his hands. The ZANU-PF leader also knows that the inclusive government offers the only hope of getting sanctions lifted by the European Union (EU) and the United States.
The sanctions he is desperate to have lifted are those that bar him and his cronies from visiting most of Europe and the United States. Someone should tell President Mugabe that even if the EU lifts the travel ban it is highly unlikely that he will be allowed entry into his beloved Britain. That might dampen his enthusiasm for the lifting of sanctions.
While President Mugabe needs the inclusive government for self-serving reasons, Tsvangirai has embraced it with the enthusiasm of a neophyte. His body language betrays the emotions swirling inside him. There is no reason to doubt that he sincerely believes it will deliver a new democratic dispensation in Zimbabwe.
Even Tsvangirai’s most strident critics do not accuse him of malevolence or self-serving cynicism. He may be naïve and strategically inept but is well-meaning. This seems to be the common view of Tsvangirai.
There is, however, no doubt that in joining the inclusive government the MDC leadership as a whole chose the softer option. Fatigue and fear after years of persecution had taken their toll. The safety and comfort of office was much more preferable to more years of struggle and persecution. They want the inclusive government to survive and are in no hurry to see its end. The MDC and ZANU-PF are like a couple trapped in a horrible marriage but see no option outside it. The marriage survives but does not work.
The inclusive government will not succeed because it is like the proverbial house built on sand. It is meant to achieve three main objectives. The first is to stabilise and revive the economy. The second is to adopt a new constitution. The third is to create conditions for free and fair elections at the end of its life. Achievements on the economic front will only be marginal. Thanks to the collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar inflation is on a downward trajectory and prices have stabilised.
Goods are also available in shops but ordinary people cannot afford these largely expensive imports. Donor money has helped restore certain services like health, education and the provision of clean water. Credit lines provided by foreign banks to the private sector will help improve industrial production. The money will continue to come in dribs and drabs with most of it channeled through non-governmental organisations.
This is simply not enough.
The government estimates it needs about US$10 billion in the next five years to turn around the economy and pay for urgent needs. It will not get that amount of money because the people who can assist do not have faith in an unelected government led by President Mugabe. It is as simple as that. Rightly or wrongly the view in Western capitals is that there cannot be full re-engagement with an unelected government led by an unrepentant President Mugabe. It is a view recently expressed by US secretary of state Hillary Clinton.
The bottom line is that Zimbabwe will get levels of assistance it requires once there is a legitimately elected government in power. No amount of lobbying by Biti and other MDC ministers will alter this reality. Equally, if not more important, is the confidence of the investor community. There will always be investors who thrive on exploring risky markets.
They will come and pick up bargains in Zimbabwe hoping that things will improve. But these are exceptions. The majority will not risk their money. They are aware that the MDC has no power to change anything that can safeguard their investments. There are plenty of safer investment markets so why take a risk with a government which has contempt for property rights.
Starved of private investment flows and a substantive rescue package, Zimbabwe will continue to struggle economically. Humanitarian assistance and other financial inflows will improve the situation but the country will remain a basket case dependent on handouts.
On the political front there are many reasons for despair. The chances of Zimbabwe having a free and fair election when President Mugabe decides to face the electorate range from slim to nothing. This is why ZANU-PF is so resistant to genuine reforms that will permit free political activity. Talk of the depoliticisation of the defence forces, CIO and the police is a waste of time while its commanders remain in their positions.
They cannot even disguise their contempt for Tsvangirai and his crew. They patiently wait for the day their services will be needed to keep ZANU-PF and themselves in power. Already the worthlessness of having an MDC co-minister of Home Affairs has been amply demonstrated. It has not stopped the police being used in a partisan manner.  Some will say the new constitution to be adopted next year will change all of this. This is yet another example of the blinkered optimism that has become a refuge for many Zimbabweans. Love-more Madhuku of the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) is correct to insist on a people-driven constitution-making process. Sadly this will not happen. The MDC and ZANU-PF will draft the constitution.
As usual it is the MDC that will make more concessions. The constitutional draft that will be adopted by the two parties will have an all-powerful executive president with very little if any of the checks and balances that all democrats want entrenched. You can count on President Mugabe to insist on this. In their mission of endless appeasement the MDC will accept a deeply flawed document in the name of national healing and unity.
In the meantime the apparatus of repression will remain largely intact ready to swing into action when orders are issued. Low intensity harassment of MDC and civil society members will continue in an ongoing campaign to destabililise and weaken their structures. Already five MDC legislators have fallen foul of the law.
The criminal justice system under the control of Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa will ensure they get the custodial sentences required to make them lose their seats. Contrary to what some think there will be by-elections. What was agreed upon in the Memorandum of Unde-rstanding does not hold. Farm invasions which act as cover for politically motivated violence will be stepped up in the period leading up to an election.
This is what President Mugabe and his inner circle are busy fine-tuning while Tsvangirai and his ministers intoxicated with excitement go all over the place begging for money and pleading for sanctions to be lifted. The excitement will end when the politics of demo mugotsi (ruthless elimination) are unleashed to render useless and irrelevant all the games played by the inclusive government.