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Premier League title race: Will Arsenal, Liverpool or Manchester City win?

Pep Guardiola says Premier League leaders Liverpool are favourites for the title after his Manchester City side drew with second-placed Arsenal on Sunday.

Liverpool hold a two-point lead over the Gunners after beating Brighton at Anfield, with City a further point back in third.

“Always who is first is favourite,” said Guardiola when asked if Liverpool were “clear favourites” to win the league.

“The second favourite is Arsenal and we are third. It’s not in our hands.”

Guardiola’s City, who host fourth-placed Aston Villa on Wednesday, are aiming for a record fourth title in a row and second successive Treble.

“Always when we were top of the league, we were favourites,” he added. “It was in our hands. Now it’s not. It’s simple.”

Liverpool new title favourites – Opta agree

Predicted Premier League final table – Opta
Team % chance of winning title Current position & points
1. Liverpool 48 1st – 67 points
2. Man City 34 3rd – 64 points
3. Arsenal 18 2nd – 65 points

For the first time this season, Manchester City are not the favourites to win the league, after Opta’s latest round of 10,000 ‘supercomputer’ simulations

Sunday’s results saw a 12% increase in Liverpool’s chances and a 12% decrease in City’s chances.

Current table

Premier League table
Team Played Points GD GS Form (past 5 games)
1. Liverpool 29 67 40 67 WWWDW
2. Arsenal 29 65 46 70 WWWWD
3. Man City 29 64 35 63 WWWDD
If teams are level after 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference, and if still level, goals scored

What are the remaining fixtures?

Liverpool Manchester City Arsenal
April Sheffield United (H) Aston Villa (H) Luton (H)
Manchester United (A) Crystal Palace (A) Brighton (A)
Crystal Palace (H) Luton (H) Aston Villa (H)
Fulham (A) Wolves (A)
Everton (A) Brighton (A) Chelsea (H)
West Ham (A) Nottingham Forest (A) Tottenham (A)
May Tottenham (H) Wolves (H) Bournemouth (H)
Aston Villa (A) Fulham (A) Manchester United (A)
Wolves (H) West Ham (H) Everton (H)
Postponed to date tbc Tottenham (A)

Sunday’s draw at Etihad Stadium meant Arsenal failed to win a Premier League game for the first time in 2024, but Mikel Arteta was satisfied with a point against a team he calls the “best in the world, by far”.

“They have the best manager in the world by far,” Arteta added. “To catch up and try to be better than them is the challenge ahead of us.

“You want to win the game. You prepare to win it. If you cannot win it, make sure you draw it. We did that.”

Guardiola’s City side are in typically formidable post-Christmas form as they aim for an English top-flight record of four consecutive titles. They have 10 wins from 14 league games since a 1-0 defeat by Aston Villa in early December.

As for Liverpool, the 3-1 loss at Arsenal on 4 February remains their only league defeat in 10 games so far in 2024. Jurgen Klopp’s team still have a trip to Goodison Park for the Merseyside derby coming up in a busy schedule.

“We just have to win our games and see where we end up,” said Klopp.

When were the other closest three-way title races?

There have been a handful of three-way Premier League title races where the teams have been separated by just two points towards the end of a 38-game season.

2013-14: By as late as 6 May 2014, only two points separated Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea, but City won their game in hand to leapfrog a stumbling Liverpool – characterised by Steven Gerrard’s famous slip against Chelsea and Crystal Palace’s comeback – to snatch the title.

2001-02: On 23 April 2002, Arsenal led Liverpool by a point with Manchester United a further point back. But Arsenal had a game in hand and were part-way through a run of 11 consecutive wins and sealed the title by beating United at Old Trafford.

1995-96: In mid-March, with eight games left, Manchester United were level on 61 points with Newcastle, and Liverpool were on 59 points in third. Despite having played two games more, Sir Alex Ferguson’s side saw off the challenge of Kevin Keegan’s Magpies.

What happened at this stage last year?

Graph showing how the 2022-23 Premier League title race unfolded
Three draws in a row for Arsenal in April 2023 saw their title challenge lose momentum last season as Manchester City took the trophy

What if they finish level on points?

Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in the head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.

Whatever happens, there are certain to be plenty of twists and turns between now and the final day of the campaign on 19 May. –