SADC’s chance to do what is right for Zim

Failure to do so will see the inclusive government flounder.
The reality is that the two main parties – ZANU-PF and Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC – are working against each other. They are not pulling in one direction. Public pronouncements from both sides about their commitment to the agreement are only meant to deceive. Behind the scenes private agendas are being driven to gain decisive advantage at the end of the inclusive government’s life – whenever that will be.
The two parties left to their own devices will not deliver on what are supposed to be key objectives of the government. All indications point to a messy and conflict-ridden constitution making process that will end with the Kariba Draft being forced down the throats of Zimbabweans.
The process will deepen divisions within the government and produce a document not acceptable to the majority of Zimba-bweans. No steps are being taken to ensure that elections to be held after the adoption of a new constitution will be free and fair. Take that together with a bankrupt government unable to pay salaries and deliver services and you have a strong recipe for failure. No amount of sworn commitment and sweet words can alter the reality of a process that will collapse under the weight of the conflicting agendas of the MDC-T and ZANU-PF.
It is SADC that fought hard to instal this inclusive government. The regional body is also the GPA’s guarantor. If it is serious about finding a lasting solution in Zimbabwe it must be proactive. It must shift from its position of protecting and mollycoddling President Robert Mugabe. This was a position championed for years by Thabo Mbeki who abused his role as mediator to advance the interests of ZANU-PF as a sister liberation movement to the ANC.
This is an opportune moment for the region to do what is right for the people of Zimbabwe. SADC must be a neutral arbiter only seeking adherence by all parties to the GPA. All the people of Zimbabwe want from SADC is for it to live up to its responsibilities and act in a fair manner. Fairness demands that President Mugabe is forced to abide by what he agreed to in the GPA. Fairness demands that everything be done to produce a free and fair election after the adoption of a new constitution. Fairness demands that ZANU-PF is not allowed to run these elections. There must be active participation by the international community under SADC or the UN to ensure that violence and rigging play no part in the elections. Sending observers three weeks before polls will simply not work.
But there are many things to be done before Zimbabwe gets to new elections. All repressive legislation must be repealed. A free media environment must be created. The criminal justice system should be allowed to function independently. No one must be denied due legal process. Politically motivated violence must stop as well as arbitrary arrests and prosecutions. Farm invasions must cease.
There should be an end to violations of court orders. The rule of law in all its manifestations must be upheld. There must be full restoration of civil liberties. A genuine participatory constitution making process must take place. It should result in a constitution with entrenched checks and balances to prevent abuses of power. This list is by no means exhaustive. This will not be done if SADC does not step in. ZANU-PF is not interested in creating a free society in Zimbabwe. The MDC is powerless to do anything about violations of the GPA.
Sadly signs are that SADC will yet again fold its arms in the face of ZANU-PF’s intransigence. After the recent SADC summit on Madagascar, King Mswati of Swaziland was asked about the MDC’s letter seeking mediation on the dispute over the unilateral appointments of key goverment officials. He said the dispute should be handled by the Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) which has representatives of the three parties that signed the GPA. As the MDC’s Nelson Chamisa pointed out last week, JOMIC is a useless body. If this is the stock answer SADC will give to all calls for its mediation as guarantor then Zimbabweans must brace themselves for failure.
During his trip to the United States and Western Europe Prime Minister Tsvangirai met with widespread skepticism. This was understandable because the record of the inclusive government does not inspire confidence. Many countries would support a process that fully complies with an agreement that gave rise to it. They want to be convinced that the journey Zimbabwe should be embarked on is irreversible and will yield the desired results. There is no such evidence in Harare. The GPA is more honoured in its breach than observance. There is absolutely nothing to inspire confidence that this process will culminate in a good constitution and free and fair elections.
The two major parties are not acting in tandem. They are at each other’s throats. ZANU-PF believes the MDC is still clandestinely engaged in a conspiracy with Western powers to effect regime change. These allegations were made by President Mugabe himself at ZANU-PF’s Central Committee meeting last week. It was also alleged at the same gathering that money pledged by these countries was meant to boost the MDC in the run-up to the elections. International agencies and NGOs will disburse the funds to “social ministries” controlled by the MDC such as health and education. Some of it presumably would end up in MDC coffers.
To counter this ZANU-PF dispatched Emmerson Mnangagwa and Oppah Muchinguri to China, Malaysia and Russia to seek funds. President Mugabe angered by what he sees as a wicked Western plot to shift him from power called on Zimbabwe to turn its back on imperialists and colonizers.
“The only good imperialist is a dead one,” he said.
President Mugabe’s strategy in dealing with the MDC is twofold. First, he realizes that Tsvangirai’s credibility is being eroded by his inability to effect change within the inclusive government. He will continue to frustrate and humiliate Tsvangirai not only to further discredit him in the eyes of his supporters but to exacerbate tensions within the MDC. Unfortunately Tsvangirai is aiding this strategy by coming across as President Mugabe’s naïve lackey. If his party does not wake up to this and get its leader back on rails all could be lost.
If this strategy fails, ZANU-PF has violence to fall back to. It is a tried and tested method that has served it extremely well in the past. It remains the biggest weapon in its armoury. There is absolutely no doubt that ZANU-PF will not go into an election like a lamb to the slaughter. If defeat stares it in the face like it did in previous elections, the party will resort to violence and electoral manipulation.
This is precisely why it is unwilling to effect reforms that would make it difficult to subvert the electoral process. The security forces remain partial to ZANU-PF. Military commanders have openly stated that the presidency is the preserve of those who took part in the liberation struggle. They maintain a hostile distance from Tsvangirai to have no problems crushing him when the time comes. The newly created National Security Council to replace the Joint Operations Command (JOC) has not even met once. It was meant to place the CIO, police and defence forces under the control of the three parties to the agreement. You can bet your bottom dollar that the old JOC still meets to plot ZANU-PF’s real agenda.
The youth militia is still in place being paid from the fiscus. They are ready for deployment. Frightened and suborned traditional leaders in rural areas will continue to be ZANU-PF’s political commissars. The state-controlled print and electronic media finds it difficult to hide its contempt for Tsvangirai. There will be no change there. In short nothing of substance will change. The old machinery is still in place ready to swing into action when ZANU-PF decides it is time to put an end to this charade
Another big advantage President Mugabe has is that only he will decide when elections are held. The GPA hints at the possibility of elections after the adoption of a new constitution but this is not binding. According to a time frame announced by Parliament a new constitution should be done and dusted by July 2010. There is no guarantee that this deadline will be met.
Already ZANU-PF has warned that unless the Kariba Draft is adopted wholesale they will sabotage the whole constitution-making process.
The much-maligned Lovemore Madhuku of the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) has at this early stage already been vindicated. The MDC-T is in a weak position on this issue because it agreed to the Kariba Draft. They will not be allowed to wiggle out of this one. It is safe to state that it is the Kariba Draft that will be presented to the electorate for ratification next year. President Mugabe wants that because the powers of an executive president are not tampered with. It will be yet another humiliating defeat for Tsvangirai.
The only thing that can prevent this depressing scenario from becoming reality is intervention by SADC. The inclusive government is supposed to be transitional.
By their very nature transitional governments should have a limited mandate and lifespan. They invariably fail when they try to be too ambitious. What SADC should do is the following. It must insist on full implementation of the GPA. The constitution-making process must not be reduced to what the three parties agreed to in Kariba. A much broader constituency must have a meaningful input. It must spearhead involvement in elections to ensure their fair conduct. The regional body must insist that the constitution be adopted within the stipulated time frame to be followed by elections.
President Mugabe must not be allowed to needlessly prolong the life of the inclusive government to suit his designs. There is also a temptation for the other parties to play along so that their snouts remain in the trough for as long as possible.
If SADC fails to do this and allows President Mugabe to ride roughshod over Zimbabweans it must not cry foul when more powerful forces outside the region prescribe their own solutions.