ZANU-PF, MDC formations jammed in the inclusive govt?

The spectre of one of the two major parties pulling out of the coalition had almost become a reality on October 16 when the MDC-T announced its disengagement from the Government of National Unity (GNU) before re-engaging again following the Maputo mini-Summit had caused anxiety among potential investors and the general public who had pinned great expectations on the transitional arrangement after a decade of political tensions and a biting economic recession.
The outcome of the Maputo Summit convened by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Troika all but confirmed that the inclusive government cannot be easily wished away no matter how divergent the beliefs and convictions of the protagonists in the Zimbabwe crisis could be.
SADC Troika leaders are said to have categorically told the main political parties in the Zimbabwe crisis that they would not support a pull-out because of the potential effects such a decision could have on the general populace and the hosting of the 2010 soccer showcase by South Africa in June next year.
Regional leaders are also uncomfortable with an early call for elections in Zimbabwe as this could unleash an orgy of politically motivated violence.
The SADC Troika gave ZANU-PF and the two MDC factions an ultimatum of up to 30 days to resolve the so-called outstanding issues in a clear indication that regional leaders saw no other alternative to the Global Political Agreement (GPA), which pulled the country’s economy from the abyss.
The troika specifically gave President Robert Mugabe, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara, the three key principals to the GPA, 15 days to engage in dialogue covering all the outstanding issues in the implementation of the GPA and the SADC communiqué of January 27 2009.
In view of the SADC directive, which analysts said was fair on all the three political parties as it recognised their concerns, the MDC-T announced that its partial disengagement had been suspended.
While the viability and workability of the GNU is critical to economic rev-ival, the initiative brokered by former South African President Thabo Mbeki has been dogged by lack of co-operation, trust and ho-nesty between ZANU-PF and the MDC-T formation led by Prime Minister Tsva-ngirai.
Since the three principals appended their signatures to the GPA in Sept-ember 2008, ZANU-PF has been holding back on the full impleme-ntation of the agreement arguing that the MDC has done nothing to ensure sa-nctions are removed, pir-ate radio stations halted from pouring vitriol on the country and that the MD-C-T stops running a parallel governme-nt.
On the ot-her hand, the MDC says it has had enough of ZANU-PF’s “stubbornness” in failing to appoint party treasurer, Roy Bennett, as deputy minister of agriculture. Bennett is facing charges of terrorism, sabotage and banditry.
The MDC is also incensed by the alleged harassment of its legislators and supporters, the overlapping functions of ministries and delays in making key government appointments.
Analysts say the stakes were heavily stacked against an MDC pullout from the inclusive government, in which the premier and his party had gained significant leverage to penetrate what had previously remained ZANU-PF controlled institutions.
The MDC, therefore, has been under pressure from both its external and internal supporters to stay the course and ease ZANU-PF slowly out of power especially in the absence of an alternative arrangement to wrest power from President Mugabe.
University of Zimbabwe lecturer and political analyst, Joseph Kurebwa, said it will be retrogressive for the inclusive government to collapse at a time so much ground had been covered in establishing peace and economic recovery in the country.
He said the public mood would not be in favour of going to elections any time soon until the situation stabilises and that for now there was no alternative to the GNU.
“I don’t think there is an alternative to the inclusive government for now,” Kurebwa said.
“The economy is still ailing. Parties to the GPA should seek to maximise their stakes within the agreement and not drop it for I do not see any other viable alternative for now. In the absence of any other strong political party that will get the resounding backing of the majority of Zimbabweans, there is no other alternative to this arrangement.”
Political analyst John Makumbe echoed Kure-bwa’s sentiments arguing that if the inclusive government collapses, the situation will be worse than the one experienced over the past decade.
“If we fail as Zimb-abweans to sustain this arrangement, then we will go back to the year 2000 because right now we only have a partially working economy,” Makumbe said.
“If the inclusive government fails, we will be worse than in the past 10 years in terms of violence. As things stand, there is a lot of itching for violence if this thing fails because there is no other foreseeable alternative in the near future. The level of destitution is so high that people can easily be bought to perpetrate acts of violence.
“There is no alternative really and the parties involved just have to stick it out. The MDC has to stay in government and ZANU-PF just has to know and understand that they are no longer running this government alone and will have to make do with the MDC.”
What is clear, however, is that the entrenched positions adopted by the protagonists in the Zim-babwe crisis have not only poisoned their relationship, but dashed any hopes of a quick economic rebound.
National Constitutional Assembly chairperson, Lo-vemore Madhuku, believes there is still life in the event of the collapse of the inclusive government.
“I am one of those working very hard so that if this arrangement fails, then we take it up from there. I am not forming another political party, but there are preparations and readiness for such an eventuality,” he said.
Zimbabweans, Madhu-ku says, should realise that their destiny is in their hands and they should do away with the mentality that if this arrangement fails, then we are doomed.
“There is what is called a moral agreement. If I tell my wife that I would pick her up after work, she will not ask me to sign an agreement. If I have to sign an agreement with her then it means she does not trust me.
“The foundation of this unity government is not clear. There is no clarity on a number of issues raised by either party,” Madhuku said adding that the premier has no real power in government.
“President Mugabe has all the power. For Tsva-ngirai, it’s just the title. Remember we used to have President Canaan Banana who was Zimba-bwe’s President for seven years, but with no power. Mugabe was the Prime Minister, with all the power.”
Eldred Masunungure, a professor of political science at the University of Zimbabwe, said the timeframe set by SADC for the conclusion of the dialogue between ZANU-PF and the MDC-T was too ambitious.
“This is too ambitious. ZANU-PF already has its eyes firmly on its next congress that has its own inherent succession battles. Tricky issues such as the reversal of senior appointments might be tackled after the ZANU-PF congress, including the swearing in of Roy Bennett,” he said.
The ZANU-PF congress is set for Harare in early December, at which a second vice president to replace the late Joseph Msika would be appointed, as well as the expected renewal of President Mu-gabe’s term at the helm of the party.
Masunungure said the ZANU-PF congress would have a major bearing on which outstanding issues the party, which viewed the nomination of Bennett as the deputy minister of agriculture as an act of provocation by the MDC-T, would implement first before going to congress.
“(President) Mugabe would not want to go to the ZANU-PF congress with ample evidence of a climb-down. It will weaken him especially if he agrees to swear in Bennett,” he said.
Useni Sibanda, the coordinator of the Chri-stian Alliance of Zim-babwe, said: “These things can be resolved with political will from all the players. The view of the church is that these are achievable even within the set deadline.”
Takura Zhan-gazha, the national director of the Media Institute of Southern Africa Zimbabwe, said:
“It’s not pragmatic (to resolve the outstanding issues in the set time limits), but the process is just meant to ensure that the GNU does not collapse. Government business has a huge backlog following MDC-T’s disenga-gement, so SADC wants government business to catch-up hence this deadline wh-ich is unrealistic and inadequate.
“It is intended to send signals that things have normalised to as-sist the three pol-itical parties to get over the hurdles.”
Zhangazha sa-id the timeframe had nonetheless excited Zimbab-weans who are itching for political reform in the country.
“All the outst-anding issues have been recognised. ZANU-PF wants the issue of sanctions dealt with while the MDC-T wants things such as media reform, among others to be addressed. It now puts the ball firmly in the court of the political parties,” said Zhangazha.
Veteran South African journalist, Allister Sparks, said ultimately, it is South Africa which has the clout in the region to force President Mugabe to fully implement the GPA.
“It is up to Zuma to prove (President) Mugabe wrong and show that he is prepared to honour his obligations as guarantor and deal firmly with ZANU-PF,” Sparks said, writing this week in a South African newspaper.
“Doing that is not as difficult as Mbeki’s apologists used to imply. No need for threats of force or sanctions or other such unrealistic posturing. Just a simple warning that if (Presi-dent) Mugabe does not implement the GPA fully and tries to rule alone, South Africa will not reco-gnise his government. It will regard him as the head of an illegitimate regime,” added Sparks.
– Additional reporting by Maxwell Sibanda