Talks breakthrough possible: Analysts
The song was released in 1976 as part of the album, Jail Break. Its catchy lyrics resonated in Harare on Monday as South African President Jacob Zuma’s facilitation team landed in the capital for the second time in as many weeks to cajole Zimbabwe’s feuding political parties, ZANU-PF and the two Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) formations to find common ground on outstanding issues threatening the 10-month-old government of national unity (GNU).
The team, led by Zuma’s trusted lieutenant, Charles Nqukula, who is also in the thick of the mediation process in Burundi, wasted no time on Monday as it immediately engaged the chief negotiators from the three parties.
Zuma was in early November officially anointed the new mediator to the Zimbabwean crisis, replacing former SA President, Thabo Mbeki, who received a lot of flake for his so-called quiet diplomacy during his facilitation, particularly from the MDC.
In the facilitation team, Zuma has included his international relations advisor, Lindiwe Zulu, and former cabinet minister, Mac Maharaj, a move analysts say signals Pretoria’s anxiety to break the logjam before the New Year.
Speculation was rife in Harare this week that a deal was on the cards although all the negotiators were reluctant to disclose what has been resolved among the long list of outstanding issues.
ZANU-PF has insisted that the only outstanding issues are the lifting of targeted sanctions slammed on President Robert Mugabe and some of his loyalists, the disbandment of foreign radio stations that broadcast into Zimbabwe and the alleged foreign interference into the country’s internal affairs by “the United States and its allies”.
There is also the issue of the so-called parallel government in which Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai is accused of employing technocrats who are not on the Public Service Commission payroll to help him discharge his duties as head of government business.
The MDC-T, on the other hand, has produced a catalogue of issues it wants resolved as enunciated in the Global Political Agreement (GPA) signed between President Mugabe, Prime Minister Tsvangirai and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara in September last year.
These include the appointments of provincial governors as per the formula agreed on by the three principals, the reversal of the appointments of certain senior government officials, the swearing in of Roy Bennett as the deputy minister of agriculture, the cessation of the alleged persecution of MDC officials and supporters as well as media reform.
Analysts that spoke to The Financial Gazette this week in the wake of the return of Zuma’s facilitation team, said the latest visit indicates that there could be progress regarding the negotiating process.
“It is clear that Zuma is determined to conclude all the outstanding issues within the shortest possible time. It flies in the face of the SA government if the inclusive government collapses,” said Phillip Pasirayi, a Harare-based political analyst.
Pasirayi said the SA government has invested so much into the power-sharing government, hence, it is in its interest that the GNU subsists.
“This is why JZ (Jacob Zuma) does not want it to collapse. So he will do everything in his power to force the feuding parties in the coalition government to reach a consensus. If the coalition government works in Zimbabwe, much credit goes to the SA government rather than SADC (the Southern African Development Community). The SA government wants the situation in Zimbabwe to improve not only because they gain political capital out of it, but that it further strengthens their position as the superpower within the sub-region,” he said.
Pasirayi said Pretoria wanted a quick resolution of the outstanding GPA issues in order to improve the livelihood of ordinary Zimbabweans currently trooping into SA in search of greener pastures.
“They (the South Africans) want to help and they have been very patient with us considering the bickering and haggling by our politicians. The Zimbabwean crisis is a burden on the shoulders of SA and they ought to help in the spirit of ubuntu,” said Pasirayi.
Trevor Maisiri, the executive director of the African Reform Institute, a local political think-tank, doubted that the Zuma team would this time around achieve a breakthrough in the negotiations.
“The real problem with issues at hand is that ZANU-PF has clearly failed to deliver on core issues of the GPA. The party has suddenly realised that they signed an agreement that they do not agree with,” said Maisiri.
“The totality of ZANU-PF machinery band structures have suddenly realised how much threat the GNU poses to the continued dominance of the party in Zimbabwean politics. There is a very powerful element in the party that is resistant to the continuation of the GPA.
“This powerful element is swaying things against the life of the GPA.”
Maisiri said the Zuma team needed to be wary of ZANU-PF, which he alleged was buying time to sort out its internal issues “before they lay an onslaught”.
Lawton Hikwa, a political analysts based in Bulawayo, said it appeared the facilitation team was back in Zimbabwe to follow-up on previous matters discussed, agreed on or disagreed upon after which a report would be compiled for initial submission to President Mugabe and the other principals in the GNU and subsequent transmittal to the SADC Troika.
“Any outstanding matters are likely to be considered by Zuma and either further brought down to negotiators or referred to Troika if they are insurmountable. Given the background of what has happened thus far and the continued engagement of the partners in the GNU, it can only indicate that Zuma and his team have leverage to deal with the Zimbabwe crisis,” said Hikwa.
Eldred Masunungure, a professor of political science at the University of Zimbabwe, said the return of the facilitation team might have been prompted by some positive outcomes from the current negotiating process.
“There must be something positive unfolding, which the Zuma team is trying to encourage or harness,” said Masunungure.
“I believe there are positive fillers and the facilitation team would like to capture that mood of progress,” he said.
Masunungure said the fact that Zuma was not personally compelled to travel to Harare, suggested that a lot of ground was being covered by the chief negotiators.
He said the SA team would be frequent visitors to Harare if the three political parties continued to dilly-dally in bringing finality to the nagging outstanding issues.
“The boys and girl (Zulu) would be back in town if the negotiators continue not to play ball,” he said.