Clock ticking for Mutambara

… as options narrow

DEPUTY Prime Minister (DPM) Arthur Mutambara is keeping the nation guessing with regards to his options and future in politics as the curtains is about to come down on the drama-filled life of the inclusive government, The Financial Gazette can report.
Weekend reports had suggested that Mutambara had been ditched by his splinter group of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) but the robotics professor was quick to dismiss these claims as “completely false”.
With the media eager to establish where the DPM stands as the nation slides towards decisive polls, the 47-year-old politician has been keeping his cards closer to his chest.
His preferred style has been to avoid pesky and inconvenient media enquiries, including from this writer. Whenever he wants to add his voice to public debate, he simply e-mails his contributions for publication without responding to enquiries sent via the same medium.
It is a strategy that has worked perfectly well for the admirer of Marxist revolutionary, Che Guevara.
It has kept him visible and relevant to the MDC-T and ZANU-PF, as both parties want him on their side to gain the numerical advantage over the other at the principals’ table.
The public has been left confused and so are members of his splinter group. While it is said that silence cannot be misquoted, the public has had to rely on interpreting the DPM’s actions.
From the look of it, Mutambara has sought to make his individual political stock relevant to the main political actors – he now fancies himself as the stabilising influence or the voice of reason in the coalition, rendered ineffective and dysfunctional by fierce infighting among its members.
For how long will the DPM sustain his guessing game is the million dollar question on everyone’s lips that could be addressed in the fullness of time.
Following a bloodless coup at the MDC’s elective congress in January 2011, political pundits had written Mutambara off.
Against the run of play, he has clung to his job through legal technicalities and a bit of lady luck.
Along with his splinter group, Mutambara has survived the rough and tumble of Zimbabwean politics by keeping his fellow Global Political Agreement (GPA) principals on side while buying time by appealing to the Supreme Court after losing the battle in the High Court.
In September last year, the court of final appeal reserved judgment in a case in which Welshman Ncube, the MDC leader, wants to quash two appeals filed by Mutambara and his followers seeking nullification of the party’s congress and election.
That alone has ensured he remains ensconced in the top echelons of government despite an earlier ruling by a High Court judge in Bulawayo that barred him from presenting himself as the MDC party leader.
But that his political career is standing on shifting sands is beyond conjecture.
Should the Supreme Court rule against him before the make-or-break polls, this would make him leader without a party and arm those pushing for his ouster from government.
A win at the superior court would also not mean much since his splinter group is thin on the ground and mired in serious internal wrangles.
A ruling after the polls would safeguard his job for now. Thereafter it would just be academic because the political dynamics would have taken a different trajectory.
The biggest question for now is whether Mutambara would throw his hat into the ring and fight with President Robert Mugabe, Prime Minister (PM) Morgan Tsvangirai and Industry and Commerce Minister Ncube for the presidency and what would be the implications if he chooses to stay out of it?
Not so long ago, speculation had been that the robotics professor would cross the floor to join one of the main political parties. But with ZANU-PF almost concluding its nominations and the MDC-T in the final stages of its primaries that possibility is now out.
Another possibility could be that he might be accommodated as a non-constituency Member of Parliament by whoever would have won the presidential vote which is likely to be closely fought between President Mugabe and his nemesis, the MDC-T leader.
Trevor Maisiri, a political analyst, shares this view. He believes that whoever wins the next election might engage the former student leader to drive one of the key developmental sectors in the country.
Of late, Mutambara has been seen as trying too hard to please both sides of the political divide by penning carefully worded opinion pieces that have provided something for everyone.
He has been able to project his unquestionable intellect and vision in a manner that makes him a vital piece in the next government.
“He (Mutambara) has been a poor politician but has been very clear cut on developmental issues – he has been a great technocrat,” observed Maisiri.
“He will probably earn a ministerial position with responsibility for development – something like the National Planning Ministry that South Africa has. I think he has the respect of both President Mugabe and PM Tsvangirai – only in that regard but not in mainstream politics,” added Maisiri.
Alois Masepe, a political analyst, said Mutambara has no political party hence he cannot challenge for the position of presidency unless he wants to imitate the comic antics of Wedza–based Egypt Dzinemunhenzva who always emerges at election time  to contest for the top job.
“He cannot be invited into the MDC-T or MDC because his sojourn in the GNU has frustrated the political fortunes of the MDCs. He will be welcome in ZANU-PF because his survival as Deputy Prime Minister is a result of President Mugabe’s political manoeuvring and generosity.
“On the other hand, Muta-mbara can be Machiavellian and bide his time until after elections and offer himself to the winner. Mutambara’s re-entry into the political mainstream shows a man prepared to serve the highest bidder not a person prepared to form and organise his own political party. I have said it before, and I repeat it here: he is some sort of political mistletoe.”
Seeing the signs clearly written on the wall, his officials in the MDC splinter group have started moving to other parties.
Of course, not many people see the DPM’s formation being able to mobilise resources that would enable it to field candidates in all the constituencies let alone sustaining the rigors of a presidential election campaign.
His party’s national organising secretary Robson Mashiri made the claims of a palace coup last week dismissed by Mutambara at the weekend, in what has helped expose the confusion gripping members of the faction.
Said Mashiri: “Mutambara has not shown interest in becoming our president at all even with the elections approaching.”
Precisely, such is the predicament many in Mutambara’s faction find themselves in — his silence is also confusing his lieutenants.
But sooner rather than later, the jury will be out.
Mutambara emerged on the political scene in 2006 when he was made leader of a breakaway faction of the MDC led by the late Gibson Sibanda.
The year before, the then united MDC under PM Tsvangirai had split around September because of disagreements over their participation in senatorial elections held that year.
Mutambara had graciously bowed down from being the party’s leader at the following elective congress in January 2011 only to challenge his exit days later, claiming he was still the legitimate leader of the MDC.
Attempts by Ncube and his followers to shove Mutambara from the DPM position have drawn blanks due to a combination of  legal technicalities and tacit support the DPM enjoys from President Mugabe and PM Tsvangirai.
The contestation for the DPM’s position has soured relations between Mutambara and Ncube, who ironically was part of the group that invited the DPM to head the party in 2006, when they broke away from Tsvangirai’s party.
Ncube’s party has since said they have “donated” the deputy premiership to ZANU-PF.
Essentially, it is ZANU-PF which has been shielding Mutambara from attempts by the MDC to reassign him to a lesser post in favour of Ncube.
The reason for ZANU-PF’s resistance has been a selfish one whereby Mutambara is seen  returning the favour by voting with ZANU-PF on crucial matters. Should Mutambara let down the party, analysts see ZANU-PF retaliating by withdrawing its support.
“President Mugabe’s current dilemma has been that SADC is now refusing to recognise Muta-mbara as a GPA principal and has instead recognised Ncube as the legitimate MDC president,” said Martin Nembudziya, a political analyst.
The dilemma appears not to be with ZANU-PF, but Mutambara himself.
Mutambara came into the lime- light in the mid-1980s as a pro-democracy student activist at the University of Zimbabwe.
He emerged at a time when it was taboo to be seen apposing ZANU-PF’s push for the one party’s state anachronism.
 Accordingly, he made his mark as a courageous and principled young political Turk worth watching for the future.
When he re-emerged – almost 20 years later — after the MDC split and indicated that he wanted to enter the political mainstream, many believed that, given his background, he would join the MDC-T and help Tsvangirai.
However, he chose to join  Ncube’s MDC to the surprise of many. That action gave the impression that Mutambara had either played a facilitative role in the MDC split or was in support of the split and its perpetuation.
ZANU PF and the former South African president Thabo Mbeki were accused by the pro-democracy movement at the time as being behind the unpopular MDC split. Accordingly, Mutambara’s re-entry into the political limelight was viewed with suspicion from the onset by the majority of Zimba bweans.
He was subsequently dethroned from the leadership of the MDC but refused to give way and formed his own obscure MDC. That marked another political blemish as it gave the impression that Mutambara was an impulsive thinker and actor.
Masepe said the honourable thing for Mutambara to have done at the time was to resign from his position.
“But he did not want to leave the gravy train. His case was not helped when President Mugabe himself was seen fighting in Mutambara’s corner and telling Professor Ncube: ‘Mina Hang’funi,’ when Ncube wanted to present himself to President Mugabe as the legitimate leader of the MDC and therefore the rightful person to assume the position of DPM.”
“The majority of the people once again started asking questions about Mutambara’s political pedigree, orientation and intentions. During the life of the GNU, Mutambara wanted to be seen as the peace broker (mulamula kunzi) between ZANU-PF and the MDC-T but it was also noticeable that, at critical stages and on critical issues, he would be seen to be siding with President Mugabe against Prime Minister Tsvangirai.
“Now the GNU is coming to an end and Mutambara, the political ballroom dancer, is faced with a situation that does not allow him to dance around the room at will from corner to corner,” concluded Masepe.