Almot Maqolo, Staff Writer 
WHEN China started removing tariffs on nearly all goods from 53 African nations at the beginning of this month, Zimbabwean exporters received what appears to be a golden opportunity.
But several economists say the country’s real battle is not about taxes, it is about production, quality standards and financing.
China has been Africa’s largest trading partner for 17 consecutive years. In 2025, two-way trade reached a record US$348,08 billion.
In the first quarter of 2026, trade grew 26,8 percent year on year, nearly nine percentage points higher than China’s overall trade growth.
For Zimbabwe specifically, bilateral trade hit US$4,4 billion dollars in 2025.
Zimbabwe exports tobacco, minerals and agricultural products to China, while Chinese goods ranging from agricultural machinery to consumer appliances are widely available in the southern African nation.
“China’s super-sized market of 1,4 billion people, including 400 million in the middle-income bracket and the sustained, robust and high-quality growth of the Chinese economy will create more opportunities for fellow developing countries in Africa and beyond,” ambassador for the Affairs of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Liu Yuxi said during a press briefing recently.
“More Chinese enterprises will leverage this policy to invest in Africa, which will help advance Africa’s industrialisation and agricultural modernisation, raise the value added of African resources, and bring Africa into the international industrial and supply chain at a faster pace.”
Chinese officials say the tariff removal is part of a broader package, including faster customs procedures and a “green channel” for African goods, aimed at easing access to the Chinese market.
“The General Administration of Customs of China has comprehensively streamlined quarantine access procedures and introduced facilitation measures such as risk-based classification management.
“For example, dried chilies from Africa now enjoy integrated access, they can be exported to China as long as they meet the unified requirements of the GACC Announcement, without the need for signing an access protocol on a case-by-case basis,” he said.
Department of WTO Affairs deputy director general at China’s Ministry of Commerce Yusong Chen, told The Financial Gazette that zero tariffs will have long-term effects.
“In the short term, I think this policy will help to boom exportation from Africa to China. I think this is just the first step. But progressively, it will encourage investment, not only from China but also from other countries, to have investment in Zimbabwe and other African countries,” he said.
“I think that will be extremely helpful for African countries to increase their industrialisation and especially to upgrade their domestic economy. I think that will have a mid-term and long-term effect.
“This zero-tariff policy will not only be a trade policy, but also help to stimulate investment, manufacturing in African countries. I think that is quite essential and I think it will have a long effect for the next step.”
Yet behind the optimism, economists point to a less discussed reality.
Economist Titus Mukove said Africa’s main challenge has never been about tariff barriers.
“It’s an opportunity for us to scale up our supply of primary products but also to develop or to add value to our products so that we benefit from this and export things that have got better added value and benefit better,” he said.
“We still face generally supply-side bottlenecks in Africa in that we export raw materials mainly or primary products.”
Mukove said Zimbabwe’s export basket remains dominated by raw commodities and a narrow range of agricultural products.
Low industrial capacity limits how much the country can actually send to China.
“Just like the rest of Africa, particularly we (Zimbabwe) are ready but we need to locate the structural gaps that are there,” he said.
“We need to look and adjust our production and scale up our levels of production. So Zimbabwe can actually increase exports but only if it moves quickly in terms of standards the supply chain is always processing.”
Another economist, Stevenson Dhlamini, offered a mixed assessment of Zimbabwe’s readiness. Dhlamini listed specific financial problems that continue to choke producers.
“High interest rates, lack of patient capital, punitive currency retention rules and the absence of tax holidays still choke producers. Meeting China’s strict phytosanitary and quality standards consistently remains a serious hurdle.
“The foundation is laid, but urgent work is needed on the supply side,” he said.
On which products have the best chance, Dhlamini said horticulture leads the way.
Citrus is already Zimbabwe’s second largest export to China.
Protocols for blueberries, avocados and macadamias are now in place. He also identified beef as a promising opportunity.
“Beef holds immense promise – the Cold Storage Commission turnaround is at an advanced stage, and with 15 000-tonne annual potential, China’s massive demand makes it a future star, provided the animal health and certification hurdles are cleared,” he said.
Minerals and tobacco remain the bedrock. He said, lithium spodumene alone accounted for 15 percent of China’s imports last year.
However, Dhlamini warned that without local processing, Zimbabwe will not fully benefit.
“Execute a coordinated, whole-of-government export push to slash red tape and fast-track quality certification. Mandate local value addition before export, following the lithium model,” he said.
He cited the need to launch a bold “Made in Zimbabwe” campaign targeting China’s quality-conscious middle class with the country’s unique story. Economist Tapiwa Mashakada went further, arguing that tariffs were never the real obstacle to begin with.
“Exporting to China has never been slowed or limited by tariffs. Zimbabwe has been failing to meet import demands from China.
“In fact, Zimbabwe has been frustrating exports to china through policies like ban on export of raw minerals just as an example.
“The demand for Zimbabwe exports in China has been growing with or without tariffs,” he said.
Mashakada also echoed other experts in saying that Zimbabwe needs to ramp up production to meet the “inelastic” Chinese demand for its imports.
“Linked to this Zimbabwe must value-add its products so as to earn more money from export receipts,” he added.
Economist Eddie Cross was the most cautious about immediate gains.
“I do not think this will make any short-term change to our exports. We do not have the means to respond to this new opportunity. But in the long term, we could see a response,” he said.
China’s ambassador to Zimbabwe, Zhou Ding, recently told business leaders in Harare that Chinese investment in the country has already exceeded 10 billion dollars, flowing into lithium processing, steel, cement and solar energy.
“Major Chinese-invested projects… are delivering tangible benefits: they create jobs, increase fiscal revenues, and actively promote technology transfer and skills training,” Zhou said.
Experts say the removal of tariffs could significantly boost Zimbabwe’s export earnings, particularly in agriculture and mining.
In 2005, China first removed tariffs on 190 products from 25 African nations.
Over the next 20 years, the policy grew alongside deepening ties, leading to an all-weather partnership. Today, zero tariffs cover nearly 9 000 products from 53 African countries with diplomatic relations with China, marking a historic trade milestone.
